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Pages: 622-654
Abstract
Global food security and rural livelihoods are seriously and alarmingly threatened by the aquaculture industry's potential stagnation and sustainability issues. The significance of predicting aquaculture development using environmental factors, management factors, and socioeconomic conditions as predictors was examined to provide integrated, evidence-based solutions for resilient policy interventions. This study utilized a predictive research design, employed a multi-stage sampling technique combining cluster and convenience sampling in selecting active aquaculture participants and registered fish farmers, collected the data through an integrated survey instrument, and analyzed them through multiple linear regression analysis. The study revealed that the descriptive levels for environmental factors, management factors, socioeconomic factors, and aquaculture development were all rated very high, indicating excellent baseline conditions and developmental progress across the province. The strength of the model to predict aquaculture development using the predictors is significant, partly supporting Sustainable Livelihoods Theory because human and physical capital assets are easily suppressed by the overarching vulnerability context. Future studies may explore additional predictors of aquaculture development using qualitative or mixed methods to examine the remaining unaccounted variance, focusing on local political involvement, global market price volatility, and unique genetic resilience. Local planners and government leaders are encouraged to provide targeted funding, structural institutional support, input subsidies, and automated water-quality monitoring stations to strengthen socioeconomic safety nets and ecological stability.